Chinese Physics Expert: I Despise Musk, First Principles Are Wrong, Are These Experts?
Today, I came across an interview with a self-proclaimed physics expert who graduated from Fudan University, expressing doubts about SpaceX's Mars mission plan, believing that Mars colonization is a far-fetched idea within the next 50 years.
From a physics perspective, he said he despises Musk. However, when he later mentioned that a manned spaceflight to Mars would take 9 years, I realized that this so-called expert lacked even basic physics knowledge. The United States, the Soviet Union, China, and India have all launched probes to Mars, with a travel time of just over half a year. Even accounting for the time needed for human return, it wouldn't exceed 3 years – his claim of 9 years is entirely unfounded.
The expert also believes that Musk's Mars plan is based on a flawed thought process, specifically first principles thinking. He explained, "First principles thinking is a way of viewing the world from a physics perspective, which means peeling back the layers of appearance to see the essence, and then building up from there. However, this method ignores many complex factors and uncertainties in actual operation. For example, Musk believes that rocket costs only need to be 1/10 or 1/100 of what they were previously, but that's just a theoretical calculation and doesn't mean it can actually be achieved."
So, do you feel that this physics expert is even more unreliable now? Let's take a closer look at what first principles thinking is.
Imagine assembling LEGO bricks, where each brick represents a simple fundamental principle. First principles thinking is like breaking down a problem into its most basic "LEGO bricks" and then reassembling them to create new, unprecedented solutions. This concept was first proposed by the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle, who believed that rational thinking starts with the most basic, indivisible truths.
Musk highly values first principles thinking and applies it to his many innovative projects, including Tesla cars and SpaceX rockets. By rethinking existing concepts, challenging conventional thought patterns, and continually trying new approaches, he has achieved groundbreaking innovations in various fields.
Take SpaceX's Falcon rocket, for example. Musk uses first principles thinking to ask why rockets are so expensive. He breaks down cost factors, re-examines materials and production processes, and ultimately concludes that only reusable rockets can significantly reduce costs, leading him to relentlessly pursue their development. The same applies to Tesla electric cars, where Musk challenges the traditional status of internal combustion engine vehicles and promotes the innovation of electric vehicles.
However, this Fudan University physics expert believes that applying first principles thinking overlooks many complex factors and uncertainties in practical operations. Musk believes that rocket costs only need to be 1/10 or 1/100 of what they were previously, but that's just a theoretical calculation and doesn't mean it can actually be achieved. The expert questions Musk's Mars plan, believing that it misleads the public and wastes resources.
I have previously written an article with detailed cost calculations for the Falcon 9 rocket. If it's reused 5 times, the cost per launch drops to $14.3 million; with 10 reuses, it's $10.6 million. The Falcon 9 has now been recovered up to 15 times, reducing costs to one-tenth of what they were. This isn't just a theoretical calculation; it's already been achieved. Otherwise, how could SpaceX operate without significant fundraising? Is this physics expert still living in the past?
The Falcon 9's reduced cost is achieved even without reusing the second stage rocket. The Starship, on the other hand, will be entirely reusable, similar to current commercial aircraft in that it will only require technical service and fuel costs. And how much is the fuel cost? A mere $930,000 per launch.
With the ability to carry 100 tons of payload into space per launch, the Starship's success would inevitably bring costs down to just 1% of what they once were. Currently, NASA's most powerful space launch system (SLS) has a cost of $2.2 billion per launch. Reducing this cost to 1/100th would amount to $22 million. Musk estimates that the initial cost of Starship launches would be around $10 million per launch, eventually dropping to $2 million – a thousand-fold reduction.
Hence, this physics expert's critique of first principles thinking is undoubtedly misguided, as he has not even grasped the core concept of first principles thinking. First principles thinking is a philosophical concept that encourages us to peel back appearances, discover the essence of things, and solve problems using innovative thinking. What is wrong with that? Shouldn't everyone approach issues and tasks in this manner?
If we truly understand first principles thinking, we should recognize it as a method for seeking truth. By breaking down problems and reassembling fundamental principles, first principles thinking can help us break away from established norms and create new solutions and perspectives. Musk's success in the fields of rocketry and electric vehicles demonstrates the enormous potential of first principles thinking in driving innovation and changing the world.
In fact, we can apply first principles thinking in our everyday lives to scrutinize our beliefs and habits. For example, when shopping, we can start with our most basic needs and consider which items are truly necessary, rather than blindly following trends and brands. In this way, we can consume more rationally, save resources, and cultivate independent thinking abilities.
Similarly, in various fields like academic research and artistic creation, first principles thinking can offer us new perspectives and insights. By analyzing the essence of problems, we can avoid falling into the trap of stale conventions and achieve true innovation and breakthroughs.